higher specificity and a slighter lower sensitivity than the other tools, but the committee
agreed that the lower sensitivity would not be a drawback when used to inform
discussions of risk.
The committee agreed that the evidence overall, and particularly the calibration data
demonstrating higher accuracy of absolute risk, strongly supported ORBIT as the tool of
choice.
The committee agreed that NICE's previous advice on monitoring and addressing
modifiable risk factors was still relevant and added reversible causes of anaemia because
it is a component of the ORBIT tool.
How the recommendations might affect practice
Use of the ORBIT score is a change in practice, which will take time to implement. The
committee considered that the more accurate prediction of the absolute risk of bleeding is
a real advantage in supporting patients and clinicians in shared decision making, which
should lead to better clinical outcomes. The committee considered carefully a number of
practical issues set out in this section. Overall, the committee concluded that this change
is one that is worth making.
One potential concern discussed by the committee is that ORBIT does not include all of
the modifiable risk factors included in HAS-BLED so does not serve as a reminder of these
to clinicians. However, the committee considered that fully investigating modifiable risk
factors is established clinical practice, regardless of the tool used.
Another potential challenge is that ORBIT is not the recommended bleeding risk tool for
other conditions (such as venous thromboembolism). Therefore, an initial transition period
may be needed for training and education in both primary and secondary care while
healthcare professionals become familiar with the tool. This will have a resource impact,
although it will be time limited. The committee also noted that use of the ORBIT tool, and
access to online versions, is straightforward.
Finally, the committee also discussed that, unlike HAS-BLED, ORBIT is not embedded in GP
systems, which may cause some initial practical difficulties. However, because this will
involve changes to centralised software, it is thought that it will be straightforward to
implement and ORBIT will quickly be included in GP systems. Neither tool is included in
hospital systems although both are widely available on smartphone apps.
Atrial fibrillation: diagnosis and management (NG196)
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