Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Overview
• Trends in Crashes, Fatalities & Injuries
• Explanation of trends
• Driving Under the Influence of Alcohol: Crashes and DWI Arrests
• Occupant Protection
• Crash Costs
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Some Notes about Interpretation of Data
• Regression to the mean
• Explaining versus predicting
• Predicting: Does it continue to happen?
• Explaining: Why did it happen?
• Causation versus correlation
• Drunk driving is associated with fatal crashes. (Correlation)
• Does an increase in drunk driving result in an increase of fatal crashes? (Causation)
• Drugged driving is associated with fatal crashes. (Correlation)
• Does an increase in drugged driving result in an increase of fatal crashes? (Causation)
• Confounding
• Confounding of factors make it difficult to interpret which factor caused the crashes to go up
or down.
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Trends
• What are the trends in crashes, fatalities and injuries?
• What are the trend in rates?
• What are one-year changes?
• What are changes from 2010 to 2019?
• Highlights:
• Interstates
• Bicycles
• Pedestrians
• Motorcycles
• Young drivers
• Crash costs
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Trends in Fatalities & Fatality Rate
While the fatalities have
been on the rise again since
2012, there was no change
from 2017 to 2018, but a
decline of 44 fatalities from
2018 to 2019 or 5.7%.
Fatalities per 100 million
miles traveled declined by
8.4% from 2018 to 2019.
What is the cause for this “Z”
curve?
966
993
677
771
727
2.15
2.19
1.46
1.54
1.41
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fatalities Fatality Rates
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Crashes, Vehicles, Occupants (1,000)
Number of
• # of crashes
• # Occupants in Crashes
• # Vehicles in crashes
437
398
468
434
302
279
333
307
158
148
174
160
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Occuopants Vehicles Crashes
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Serious and Moderate Injury Rate (per 100 Million Miles)
Over the past 15 years
the serious & moderate injury rate
has dropped on average 2 injuries
per year per 100 million miles
traveled.
184
151
148
166
141
y = -2.04x + 176.29
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Fatality Rate per 1,000 Occupants of Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans
If we still had the same
fatality rate per occupant as
in 2006 (1.81) we would
have had 287 more
fatalities in 2019.
The fatality rate per
occupant seems to have
shifted to a lower level
starting in 2008.
713
462
501
457
1.81
1.22
1.31
1.15
0.90
1.10
1.30
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fatality Trends (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs,
and Vans)
Fatal Fatal Rate (per 1,000 OCC)
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Moderate and Severe Injury
(Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)
Moderate-to- Severe Injuries:
Decreased from 13,997 in 2005 to 10,556 in 2019
The Moderate-to- Severe-Injury Rate:
(per 1,000 Occupants)
Decreased from 35.58 in 2005 to 26.67 in 2019.
Has been flat between 26.71 (2017), 26.51 (2018)
And 26.67 (2019).
If we had the same injury rate as in 2005,
we would have had 3, 528 more moderate to
severe injuries in 2019.
13,997
11,045
11,879
10,556
35.58
29.41
28.15
26.67
20.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
32.00
34.00
36.00
38.00
40.00
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Serious & Moderate Trends (Cars, Light
Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)
Serious & Moderate Injuries SMI Rate (per 1,000 OCC)
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Conclusion from the Trend Data
A comparison between 2005 and 2019 crash data for LA show:
• about the same number of crashes
• about the same number of vehicles in crashes
• about the same number of occupants in crashes
However, LA had
• 35.9% fewer fatalities in (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)
• 24.6% fewer serious and moderate injuries in (Cars, Light Trucks,
SUVs, and Vans)
Explaining Injury & Fatality Trends
• 1984 (FMVSS 208) to require cars produced after 1 April 1989
to be equipped with a passive restraint for the driver.
• September 1998 Federal legislation makes front airbags on both sides
mandatory.
• 2009 NHTSA mandate that all automakers must phase in additional
side-impact protection as a standard feature for their cars, trucks and
SUVs goes in effect.
Fatality and Injury Rates by Vehicle Model Year
(Per 100,000 Occupants in crashes)
The rate of serious to fatal injuries declined by 78.4% from 1988 model vehicle to a 2000 model vehicle.
The rate of fatalities declined by 90.5% from 1988 model vehicle to a 2000 model vehicle.
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Fatal and Injury Rates by Vehicle Year
% Minor to Fatal Rate Fatal Rate Serious to Fatal Rate
46%
22%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% Vehicles Year <1999
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Explaining Injury & Fatality Trends versus Unemployment
Louisiana Unemployment Rate
966
993
677
771
727
2.15
2.19
1.46
1.54
1.41
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fatalities Fatality Rates
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Explaining Injury & Fatality Trends versus Seat Belt Use
713
462
501
457
1.81
1.22
1.31
1.15
0.90
1.40
1.90
2.40
200
400
600
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fatality Trends (Cars, Light Trucks, SUVs, and Vans)
Fatal Fatal Rate (per 1,000 OCC)
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Conclusion
• Safer cars beginning with the 1999 models (airbags)
• Resulting in a permanent lower injury and fatality rate per vehicle in a crash
• 2007-2011 three things where happening
• Older less safe cars (<1999) where phased out
• The economy had a downturn, fewer vehicles in crashes
• Seat belt use increased by 2.5 percentage points
• 2011-2019 experienced an increase in vehicles in crashes due to increased
economic activities. But
• at much lower injury rates of safer cars, and
• A 10 percentage point increase in seat belt use
• The result is more like a “Z” curve rather than a “V” curve
Other Trends
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Crashes on State Routes and Local Roads
101792
89533
71833
70879
17.1%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
STATE LOCAL %-Single Veh Linear (%-Single Veh)
Interstate Fatalities
From 2018 to 2019
• Fatalities down 15.8%
• Fatality rate down 15.2%
165
180
141
133
135
140
93
106
115
110
96
114
112
114
96
1.35
0.74
0.67 0.67
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
FATAL CRASHES
FATALITIES
FATALITIES PER 100 MILLION MILES TRAVELED
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
• 2017-2019 number of crashes trending downwards on state roads, US HWY &
Interstates while number of crashes on local roads have not changed much.
• Single vehicle crashes on state routes US HWY & Interstates have declined by
one percentage point over the past 10 years.
Bicyclist Fatalities
• 2018-2019
• Bicyclist fatalities down 26.7%
• Alcohol involved bicyclist's death
unchanged
• All injuries went up 9.7%.
• Over the past 15 years on
average Louisiana had 19.8
bicyclist fatalities per year.
611
648
739
727
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bicycles
FATALITIES FATALITIES WITH ALCOHOL
INJURIES & FATALITIES
Motorcyclist Fatalities
2018-2019 Change
• Motorcyclist fatalities up 10.1%.
• Alcohol involved motorcyclist's
death up 14.3%.
• Injuries down 4.3%.
• Injuries have been trending
downward for the past decade.
1,483
1,784
1,480
1,405
1,194
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Motorcycles
FATALITIES FATALITIES WITH ALCOHOL
INJURIES & FATALITIES
Pedestrian Fatalities & Injuries
2018-2019 change
• 26.1% decrease in pedestrian
fatalities
• 6.6% decrease in pedestrian
injuries
• Injuries have trended
upwards since 2006.
1,296
1,053
1,464
1,635
1,527
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Pedestrians
FATALITIES FATALITIES WITH ALCOHOL
INJURIES & FATALITIES
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Young Drivers in Fatal Crashes
71
21
43
27
17
29
91
33
47
40
77
44
58
57
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Crash Rates Per 100,000 Licensed Drivers
15-17 18-20 21-24 Poly. (18-20)
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
The four Major Contributing Factors
Alcohol
Aggressive
Driving
Safety Belt
Distraction
The 5-year average is
78% of fatal crashes involves
one of the four factors.
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Distractions
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Cell Phone Distraction
Distracted & Inattentive Fatalities
2,154
2,278
2,217
2,178
2,241
2,343
2,404
2,406
2,174
2,279
3
6
13
9
5
6
3
8
7
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Drivers Driver Fatalities
214
213
214
204
187
166
154
168
155
137
172
156
168
158
187
0
50
100
150
200
250
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Aggressive Driving
Aggressive Driving is defined as either
• Exceeding stated speed limit
• Exceeding safe speed limit
• Failure to Yield
• Following too closely
• Improper passing
• Disregarded traffic control
• Careless operation
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Fatalities & Aggressive Driving Violations
Aggressive driving violations
in fatal crashes
have been flat between
403 and 429 over the past
8 years.
588
614
640
572
522
474
419
404
416
426
429
424
421
403
416
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Drinking and Driving
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Surviving Driver
The odds of the surviving driver having NO alcohol are about 9 to 1.
YEAR
DRIVERS %
DRIVERS
% DRIVERS % DRIVERS %
2 0 14 291 58% 10 2%
14 9 29% 56 11%
2 0 15 339 59% 11 2% 15 2 27% 69 12 %
2 0 16 338 53% 8 1% 231 36% 61 10 %
2 0 17 324 54% 0 0% 2 19 37% 52 9%
2 0 18 365 56% 0 0% 228 35% 56 9%
2 0 19 3 19 5 1% 0 0% 243 39% 60 10 %
5 YEAR
10% -6% 63% 10% 7% -1%
BAC 0
PENDING & UNK
NOT TESTED
BAC > 0
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Fatalities
The odds of the killed driver having NO alcohol are about 2 to 1.
The odds of the fatal driver to have BAC>0 are about 5 times the odds of the surviving driver.
YEAR
DRIVERS %
DRIVERS
% DRIVERS % DRIVERS %
2 0 14 206 42% 43 8.8% 73 15 % 16 6 34%
2 0 15 245 47% 22 4.2% 72 14 % 18 4 35%
2 0 16 248 50% 3 0.6% 74 15 % 16 7 34%
2 0 17 277 54% 0 0.0% 67 13 % 17 3 34%
2 0 18 251 5 1% 0 0.0% 92 19 % 15 0 30%
2 0 19 257 54% 0 0.0% 53 11% 16 7 35%
5 YEAR
25% 12% -27% -4% 1% 1%
BAC 0
PENDING & UNK
NOT TESTED
BAC > 0
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Fatalities in Crashes with BAC>=0.08
152
219
253
246
225
166
181
199
194
201
223
204
188
186
188
27%
36%
35%
35%
34%
29%
34%
32%
31%
31%
32%
29%
27%
27%
28%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BAC >= .08 Fatalities % BAC >= .08 Fatal Crashes
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Rate (per 100,000 lic. Drivers) Youth Drivers and Alcohol Involvement in Fatal Crashes
17
3
2
1 1
17
29
8
6
7
21
35
16
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Youth Drivers with Predicted Alcohol Involved in Fatal Crashes
15-17 18-20 21-24
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
DWI Fatalities and % DWI Fatalities
Involving of BAC>=0.08 by Troop Area
Size of bubble represents total number of fatalities.
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
I
L
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Number of Fatalities BAC>08
% Alcohol-Related Fatalities
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
DWI Arrests from COBRA
Rule of Thumb:
For every 1,000 hours
Saturation Patrol 4 fewer fatalities.
For every SFST conducted
3 fewer fatalities.
Source: Target of Opportunity Report.
6,125
5,679
5,308
4,565
4,587
4,497
4,064
4,078
3,721
3,434
16,185
15,659
14,931
12,450
11,753
9,678
8,378
10,014
9,356
9,244
2,019
1,770
1,609
1,120
1,004
800
717
756
641
580
7,448
6,833
6,123
5,428
5,523
3,598
2,788
3,963
3,715
3,822
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
COBRA DATA
No DWI ADULT-DWI UNDERAGE-DWI REFUSED
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
COBRA: Refused Tests
8,579
3,822
33.2%
22.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Refused % Refused
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
COBRA: Average BAC
0.125
0.119
0.12
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.124
0.125
0.126
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Youth (17-20) DWI Arrests
2,750
817
0.096
0.089
0.078
0.08
0.082
0.084
0.086
0.088
0.09
0.092
0.094
0.096
0.098
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# TESTS POSIVE AVERAGE BAC
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Average Age in DWI Arrests
35
38
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
36.5
37
37.5
38
38.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Drugs in Fatal Crashes (Crime Lab Data)
38
42
41
50
93
158
33
43
27
41
21
34
35
49
34
53
40 40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cannabinoid Narcotics Stimulants
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Occupant Protection
What progress has Louisiana made over the past 20 years?
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Seat Belt Usage (1999-2019)
67.0%
68.2%
68.1%
68.6%
73.8%
75.0%
77.7%
74.8%
75.2%
75.5%
74.5%
75.9%
77.7%
79.3%
82.0%
84.1%
85.9%
87.8%
87.1%
86.9%
87.5%
y = 1.1%x + 66.1%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Seat Belt Use by Region 2016-2019
Region Estimate STD Error
1-New Orleans
87.0% 0.2%
2-Baton Rouge
84.4% 0.2%
3-Houma
91.3% 0.2%
4-Lafayette
86.6% 0.2%
5-Lake Charles
91.1% 0.3%
6-Alexandria
81.3% 0.3%
7-Shreveport
90.1% 0.2%
8-Monroe
84.9% 0.3%
LA total
87.7% 0.1%
FIGURE 1: LOUISIANA SURVEY REGIONS
2. Baton
Rouge
1. New
Orleans
8. Monroe
6.
Alexandria
3. Houma
4.
Lafayette
7.
Shreveport
5. Lake
Charles
2019
Louisiana 87.5%
Texas 90.9%
Arkansas 81.9%
Mississippi 80.5%
Alabama 92.3%
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Seat Belt Use by Troop 2016-2019
Troop
Estimate STD Error
A-Baton Rouge
84.8% 0.2%
B-New Orleans
86.1% 0.2%
C-Houma
93.4% 0.2%
D-Calcasieu
91.1% 0.3%
E-Natchitoches
81.3% 0.3%
F-Monroe
85.1% 0.3%
G-Shreveport
90.4% 0.2%
I-Lafayette
86.6% 0.2%
L-Hammond
88.3% 0.2%
LA 87.7%
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Seat Belt Use of Fatalities versus Seat Belt Use Survey by Troop
y = 1.0x - 40
R² = 0.65
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% 96.0%
Seat Belt Use (Survey)
Seat Belt Use (Fatality)
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Seat Belt Tickets by Age Group per 100,000 licensed
Drivers
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Set Belt Tickets by Age Group, Gender and Race per
100,000 licensed drivers
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Multiple Tickets
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Ratio of Estimated Percentage of Driver Receiving Seat Belt Tickets over Percentage of Drivers not Wearing a Seat Belt
FEMALE MALE
Seat Belt
Tickets BLACK OTHER WHITE BLACK OTHER WHITE
1
0.91 0.85 1.18 0.86 1.15 1.01
2
0.84 0.47 0.84 1.13 1.21 1.10
3
0.73 0.47 0.65 1.31 1.33 1.15
4
0.65 0.28 0.58 1.40 1.27 1.18
5+
0.53 0.19 0.47 1.54 1.15 1.23
Table 5: Ratio of Estimated Percentage of Driver Receiving Seat Belt Tickets over Percentage of Drivers not Wearing a Seat Belt
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Cost of Crashes
The Economic and Societal Impact Of Motor Vehicle Crashes,
2010, page 12, unit cost are adjusted by CPI.
Type Average Cost per Person Injuries
Total Cost by Injury
Category in Billion
Dollars
Total Cost by Injury
Category in Billions
Including Loss of
Quality of Life
Fatal Injuries
$1,650,721 727 $1.20 $7.85
Severe Injuries
$422,227 1,348 $0.57 $2.44
Moderate Injuries
$123,869 11,536 $1.43 $6.07
Complaint Injuries
$26,879 59,629 $1.60 $3.24
Occupants with No Injury
$5,168 360,402 $1.86 $1.86
Property Damage
$7,170 307,202 $2.20 $2.20
Grand Total Cost 740,844 $8.87 $23.66
Cost per licensed Driver $2,993 $7,989
Percent change from past year
-0.4% -0.9%
Moderate, sever & fatality make up only 36% of the economic costs but 89% of quality of life costs.
For comparison Louisiana’s fiscal year 2019
executive budget was $9.74 Billion.
Center for Analytics & Research in Transportation Safety
Summary
• While the number of crashes and number of people involved in
crashes are about the same as in 2005, fatalities are about 25% lower
than in 2005.
• Factors contributing to this are:
• Safer vehicles.
• Higher seat belt use, (+10%) over past 10 years
• Alcohol impaired fatalities (BAC>0.08) slightly down over the past three years
• Cost of crashes decreased slightly from 2018 to 2019.
COVID-19 Year Outlook
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
killed-2015-2019 Killed-2020
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Crashes: 2015-2019 Crashes: 2020
