8
Project Sheet I – Energy Baseline/Future Target Guidelines
The first step in assessing renewable energy potential is to establish the baseline in terms of energy
consumption, and to what extent this will change over time having regard for future demand.
The following table
1
shows energy consumption in 2008 and projected energy consumption in 2020
for the UK as a whole:
2008 2020
All Energy
(MWh)
Renewable
Energy (MWh)
All Energy
(MWh)
Renewable
Energy (MWh)
Predicted all
energy % change
Electricity
387,000,000 22,000,000 386,000,000 117,000,000 - 0.3 %
Heat 711,000,000 7,000,000 599,000,000 72,000,000 -15.8 %
Transport 598,000,000 9,000,000 605,000,000 49,000,000 + 1.2 %
Total final energy
consumption
1,695,000,000 39,000,000 1,590,000,000 239,000,000 -6.2 %
Table 1: 2008 energy consumption and projected 2020 consumption
This indicates that future total final energy consumption will decrease by 2020, with renewable energy
accounting for a much greater proportion.
Table 2 provides energy consumption data
2
(in MWh) at the UK, Wales and Caerphilly levels, using
categories employed by the UK Government’s Renewable Energy Strategy (RES) from 2008. It was
included in the first Renewable Energy Baseline Assessment in 2011 but since the assessment was
published the data has been updated by DECC. The following table includes the updated data. The
table also includes figures for 2012 for comparison purposes.
RES Sector
UK Wales Caerphilly
2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012
Electricity 304,625,000 290,863,900 16,267,200 15,284,900 664,000 647,200
Heat 831,615,800 724,798,500 59,898,200 50,750,400 2,040,700 1,724,300
Transport 480 436 800 436,112,100 23,889,100 21,457,900 946,700 853,400
Total 1,616,678,000 1,451,775,000 100,054,500 87,493,200 3,651,400 3,224,900
Table 2: Energy consumption for UK, Wales and Caerphilly 2008 and 2012
This indicates that overall energy consumption in Caerphilly has decreased between 2008 and 2012
by 2.6%.
As part of the first Renewable Energy Baseline Assessment in 2011, it was assumed that the
projected level of consumption by 2020 would follow the same trends as table 1. Using the updated
2008 data in table 2, table 3 provides this information with figures expressed in MWh.
RES Sector
UK Wales Caerphilly
2020 2020 2020
Electricity 303,711,125 16,218,398 662,008
Heat 700,220,503.6 50,434,284 1,718,269
Transport 486,202,041.6 24,175,769 958,060
Total 1,516,443,964 93,851,121 3,425,013
Table 3: Projected 2020 energy consumption using predicted percentage change
1
Taken from ‘Planning for Renewable and Low Carbon Energy – A Toolkit for Planners, July 2010’
2
Data source: www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/total-final-energy-consumption-at-regional-and-local-authority-level-2005-to-
2010