Introduction: time for
production integration
• Integration is a multidimensional process encompassing
economic, political, social, cultural and environmental issues.
• The document focuses specifically on the production
dimension
, identifying it as a strategic element of regional
integration for the coming years.
• Central thesis: in order to move towards structural
changes for equality, the region must forge closer regional
production ties.
• Tackling inequality as well as social policies calls for a
change in the production and export structure and the
creation of good quality and progressively more
sophisticated activities.
• The regional space is the most conducive
to this transformation
The dynamics and emphasis of regional integration
have changed greatly in the past decade
Several Governments had a new vision of the type of integration that prevailed
in the 1990s, especially the emphasis on commercial issues.
The political and social dimensions are reaffirmed as being of the utmost
importance along with concern for achieving greater production integration
New entities have emerged (CELAC, UNASUR, ALBA-TCP, the Pacific Alliance) in
response to traditional integration schemes; multiple memberships add to the
complexity of the institutional integration architecture
Traditional deficiencies persist (sluggish intraregional trade and production
integration), which coexist with growing de facto integration (investments,
migration, tourism, etc.)
Special challenges to integration
in the Caribbean
The Caribbean is different:
• The small size of the subregional market
• Heavy external debt burden. Fiscal and external disequilibria
• Lack of complementarity between the various economies
• High dependency on : (i) external markets and (ii) a limited range of
commodities and services
• Island status, major challenges with connectivity
• Heightened vulnerability to natural disasters and
environmental damage
In this context, the recommendations are as follows:
• Closer integration between CARICOM and Central America, Cuba,
Dominican Republic and Panama given their strong complementarity
• Strengthened and coordinated cooperation towards the Caribbean
from the rest of the region, defined within the framework of CELAC
A COMPLEX GLOBAL
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
As a group, the developing economies continue
to grow the fastest and the gap with the
developed countries has narrowed
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World
5.1
3.9 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.9
Developed countries
3.0
1.6 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3
United States
2.4
1.8 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0
Eurozone
2.0
1.4 -0.7 -0.5 1.2 1.5
Japan
4.5
-0.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0
Developing and
emerging economies
7.4
6.3 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.3
China
10.4
9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3
India
10.1
7.9 4.7 4.4 5.4 6.4
Latin America and
the Caribbean
5.9
4.3 3.1 2.5 2.7 3.0
WORLD AND SELECTED ECONOMIES: GDP VARIATION
(Percentages)
Source: FMI, World Economic Outlook, abril de 2014, excepto CEPAL para América Latina y el Caribe (2010-2014). Los datos para 2014 y 2015
son proyecciones.
United States: Will grow by 2.8% in 2014
(versus 1.9% in 2013)
Concern at the timing of the gradual withdrawal
of quantitative easing, high public debt
Eurozone: At the end of 2013 these countries emerged from
a six-quarter-long recession, but are expected to grow by
just 1.2% in 2014, with high levels of unemployment
Concern at deflationary pressures and the complexities
of the banking union
Japan: Is experiencing growth of about 1.5% thanks to
macro-heterodox policies and the devaluation of the yen
The high public debt and scant advances with structural
reforms remain a cause for concern
Higher but modest growth rates
in the developed countries
The growth gap is narrowing: In 2014-2019, the difference between
the average growth rate of the developed and developing countries
(2.3% versus 5.3%) is expected to be the lowest since 2002
Phasing out of quantitative easing in the United States
Slowdown in China as from 2012, due to lacklustre demand
in the developed countries and the rebalancing of the growth model
The external context is more challenging for
the developing countries:
-Less liquidity (due to withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States)
-Lower commodity prices (due to lower demand in China)
Slowdown in the
emerging economies
World trade has been sluggish
although it is starting to recover
GROWTH IN THE VOLUME OF GOODS EXPORTS AND WORLD GDP, 2005-2015
a
(Annual percentage variation)
Source: Secretaríat of the World Trade Organization.
a
The figures for 2014 and 2015 are projections.
Growth has been slowing since 2011 (2.5% in 2013)
• The slowdown has been marked: the region grew on average
by 4.8% in 2003-2007 and 4.1% in 2010-2013
• Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to continue to be
the developing region with the least dynamic performance in
the period 2014-2019
• Exports slowed sharply in 2012 and 2013
• Increasing external vulnerability, reflected in a deterioration in
the balance-of-payments current account position
• This brings to a close an international cycle that had been very
favourable for the region, in particular for South America.
• In the coming years, greater emphasis will have to be placed
on the regional market
Impact of the global situation
on Latin America and the Caribbean
With investment and net exports contributing little,
GDP growth has depended to a great extent on
growth in consumption
LATIN AMERICA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH OF THE
COMPONENTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND, 1980-2013
(Percentages of GDP)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
Regional exports slowed sharply
in 2012 and 2013
LATIN AMERICA: ANNUAL GROWTH OF THE VALUE OF EXPORTS, 2000-2013
(Percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures .
Energy
Minerals and metals
Oils and oilseeds
Food
Forestry-related
raw materials
Tropical beverages
Commodity prices continue to trend
downwards
EXPORT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX, WEIGHTED BY THE VALUE OF EXPORTS
(Index 2005=100)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of figures provided by the United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development (UNCTAD) and the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CBP).
LATIN AMERICA: ESTIMATED RATE OF VARIATION IN THE TERMS OF TRADE, 2011-2013
a
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of official figures
a
The figures relating to 2013 are projections.
The region’s terms of trade are declining
(Percentages)
Very modest growth is predicted for the
region for the remainder of the decade
DEVELOPING REGIONS: PROJECTED ANNUAL GDP VARIATION, 2014-2019
(Percentages)
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database, April 2014.
SUMMARY OF THE MAIN
TRANSFORMATIONS TAKING
PLACE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Main trends in the global context
Rapid technological
change
• Informátion
technology, ICTs,
cloud computing,
cyber-servicies,
“smart cities”
• 3-D printing,
robotics, remote-
controlled vehicles
• Biology,
nanosciences and
information sciences
interface
• Energy, water and
natural resources
complex
Emergence of the
developing countries
• In growth, trade,
FDI, rise of the
middle class,
patents, new
technologies
• A process that is
highly concentrated
in China/Asia
Value chains
• Three major
factories:
• North America
• Europe
• East Asia
Mega-trade
agreements
• TPP
• TTIP
• EU-Japan
• ASEAN+6 (Regional
Comprehensive
Economic
Partnership)
Need to address climate change
and ensure that growth is compatible with greater environmental sustainability
Drastic increase in inequality
The contribution to global growth has been on the
decline in the industrialized countries , on the rise
in Asia and stable in Latin America
SELECTED GROUPINGS: CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH, 1990-2012
(Percentages)
Source: CAF/ECLAC/OECD, World Economic Outlook 2014.
The crisis has accelerated convergence between
the per capita income of China and
that of the developed countries
SELECTED COUNTRIES: PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH, 2014 Y 2019
(Percentages in relation to the 2007 level)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of International Monetary Fund, World
Economic Outlook, April 2014. The data for both years are projections.
By the end of this decade, South-South trade
will surpass North-North trade
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of United Nations Commodity Trade
Statistics Database (COMTRADE).
a
The figures from 2013 onwards are projections.
DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD GOODS EXPORTS BY GROUP OF ORIGIN AND DESTINATION, 1985-2020
a
(Percentages)
Developing countries already absorb
more than half of all FDI worldwide
Source: ECLAC, Division of International Trade and Integration, on the basis of figures from UNCTAD.
WORLDWIDE FDI FLOWS, 1980-2013
(Billions of dollars)
In 2030, 80% of the world’s middle-class population will
be living in countries currently defined as developing
and Asia will be home to two thirds of them
WORLD: MIDDLE-CLASS POPULATION, 2009, 2020 AND 2030
a
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of Homi Kharas, “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries”, OECD Development Centre
Working Paper 285, January 2010.
a
The figures for 2020 and 2030 are projections.
The developing countries in Asia, unlike
our region, hold an ever larger stake
in global knowledge generation
1990 2000 2012
Developed countries
a
87.3 75.2 52.4
Rest of the world 12.7 24.8 47.8
China 1.0 3.8 27.8
Republic of Korea 2.6 7.4 8.0
Latin America and the
Caribbean
1.9 3.5 2.5
WORLD PATENT APPLICATIONS
(Percentages)
Source: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).
a
Includes Europe, United States and Japan.
GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONS
ACCENTUATE THE NEED FOR REGIONAL
INTEGRATION IN LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
The region’s strengths and weaknesses
as an international economic actor
• Attractive and growing consumer market;
expansion of the middle class
• Abundance of renewable and
non-renewable natural resources
Strengths
• Limited involvement in
the knowledge economy
• Strong emphasis on exports: (i) raw
materials and assembly manufactures;
(ii) a small number of large companies
• Limited internacionalization of SMEs
Weaknesses
In this context, the regional market
plays a key role
For the large majority of Latin American and Caribbean countries,
intraregional trade is qualitatively superior to exporting
to other markets:
It is the most
conducive to
export
diversification
as it absorbs
the greatest
number of
export
products
It is the main
outlet for
manufacturing
exports
It is the main
market for
most export
companies,
especially
SMEs
The region is
the natural
platform for
growth of the
trans-Latins
and for the
creation of
plurinational
production
linkages
Intraregional trade has made scant progress
since its peak at the end of the 1990s
(a) Total exports
(b) Manufacturing exports
a
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INTRAREGIONAL EXPORTS
AS A SHARE OF WORLDWIDE EXPORTS, 1990-2012
(Percentages)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of COMTRADE.
a
Includes high-, medium- and low-technology manufactures. Excludes natural resource-based manufactures.
The regional market is more conducive to
export diversification
NUMBER OF PRODUCTS EXPORTED BY LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES TO SELECTED MARKETS, 2012
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of COMTRADE.
Latin
America and
the
Caribbean
United States European
Union
China Japan
Argentina 3 591 1 465 1 712 407 388
Brazil 3 929 2 762 2 991 1 389 1 247
Chile 3 014 1 275 1 296 362 313
Colombia 3 239 1 708 1 250 253 201
Costa Rica 2 821 1 792 1 095 260 188
El Salvador 2 522 1 004 396 45 35
Guatemala 3 274 1 321 721 142 155
Jamaica 607 888 467 73 44
Mexico 3 857 4 164 2 803 1 367 1 272
Peru 3 037 1 796 1 602 266 575
Excluding Mexico, the regional market is the main outlet
for manufactures exported from Latin America
and the Caribbean
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: SHARE OF MEDIUM- AND HIGH-TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURES
EXPORTED WITHIN THE REGION, 2012
a
(Percentages)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of information from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database (COMTRADE).
a
The figures for the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Panama and Suriname are from 2011.
However, intermediate goods account
for a small share of intraregional trade
in the region
SELECTED GROUPINGS: PARTS AND COMPONENTS AS A SHARE OF INTRA-GROUP EXPORTS, 2000-2012
(Percentages)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of information from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database (COMTRADE).
a
North American Free Trade Agreement.
b
Includes China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China and Taiwan Province of China.
Some gaps in the region’s
export performance
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of official information from the
customs services of the respective countries, OECD, World Bank
and specialized studies.
LATIN AMERICA (10 COUNTRIES): DISTRIBUTION OF
EXPORTING FIRMS BY NUMBER OF MARKETS AND
PRODUCTS, AROUND 2010
(Percentages)
EXPORT SHARE OF THE TOP PERCENTILE OF
EXPORTING FIRMS, AROUND 2010
(Percentages)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of official information from the
customs services of the respective countries.
Agro-industry
- Fruit and nuts
- Oilseeds
- Leather
manufactures
Agro-industry
- Dairy
- Meat products
- Cereals and animal feed
- Fruit and vegetables
- Unmanufactured tobacco
Metal manufactures
- Precious metalwork
- Gold, silver and copper
Some examples of potential intraregional linkages
Metal products
- Wire products
- Iron and aluminium structures
- Metal manufactures
Chemical products
- Polymers and
copolymers
- Heterocyclic
components
- Cosmetics
- Wood pulp
Central
America
and Mexico
South America
The region’s countries are already participating
in a wide variety of service chains
Business
process
outsourcing
Health
services
Creative
industries
industries
Information
technology
Other services
Accounting and
finance
[ARG, BRA, CHL, CRI,
MEX, URY]
Health tourism
[BRA, CUB, COL, CHL,
CRI, PAN]
Audiovisual industry
[ARG, BRA, CHL, MEX]
Software development
[ARG, BRA, CHL, COL,
CRI, URY
]
Education
[ARG, BRA, CHL]
Process management
and development
[ARG, BRA,
CHL, CRI,
MEX, URY]
Clinical trials
[ARG, BRA, CHL, COL,
MEX, PER]
Advertising
[ARG, BRA, CHL, MEX]
Consulting and
information
technology services
[ARG, BRA, CHL, CRI,
URY]
Research,
development and
innovation
[BRA, MEX, CHL]
Human resources
[ARG, BRA,
CHL, CRI,
URY]
Telemedicine
[ARG, BRA, COL, MEX]
Content industries
[ARG, BRA, MEX]
Management,
Integration and
application
maintenance
[ARG, BRA, CHL, COL,
CRI, URY
Engineering and
construction
[ARG, BRA, CHL, MEX]
Call, contact and
customer service
centres
[Central America
countries, CHL, COL,
DOM PER, URY]
Telediagnostics
[BRA, MEX]
Architecture
[ARG, BRA,
CHL
, MEX]
Infrastructure networks
[ARG, BRA, CHL, CRI,
JAM, URY]
Outsourcing of
knowledge-intensive
services (legal
services, financial and
market research
[BRA, CHL, CRI, MEX]
Back office services
[ARG, CHL, BRA, COL,
CRI, MEX, URY]
Analysis and
interpretation of
medical results
[BRA, URY, MEX]
Design
[ARG, BRA, MEX]
Video games, animation
and simulation
[ARG, CHL]
Financial services
[BRA, CHL, CRI, MEX]
Shared service centres
[ARG, CHL, BRA,
COL,CRI, MEX, URY]
Source: Hernández, René, and others (ed.), Latin America’s emergence in global services: A new driver of structural change in the region?, ECLAC, 2014.
Bottlenecks in infrastructure constrain growth,
competitiveness and equity
LATIN AMERICA (SELECTED COUNTRIES): SECTORAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
(Percentages of GDP)
The region would need to spend 7.9% of annual GDP on infrastructure to close by 2020
the infrastructure gap measured in the region in 2005 compared with a group of growing
economies in East Asia (Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong SAR).
Source: ECLAC and Perrotti, Daniel, and Ricardo J. Sánchez (2011), “La brecha de infraestructura en América Latina y el
Caribe”, Series Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura No. 153.
Dimensions that complement regional
production integration
Financing
• Take steps
towards a
regional reserve
fund (building on
the success of
FLAR)
• Boost credit from
the subregional
banking system
for productive
development
• Support for
intraregional
trade, introducing
more flexible
payment
mechanisms
• Foster integration
of capital markets
Environment
• Management of
transboundary
areas and shared
ecosystems
• Joint programmes
on measuring and
reducing the
carbon footprint
• Natural disaster
risk management
Digital
cooperation
• Concerted action
to reduce the cost
of broadband in
the region
• Regulatory
harmonization on
the Internet
• Close the digital
gap, with
emphasis on
remote areas and
vulnerable sectors
• Mass use of ICTs
in health,
education and
SMEs
Social agenda
• Transboundary
production
programmes
• Addressing
growing
intraregional
migration: making
migrants’right and
benefits in health
and pensions
portable;
standardization of
university
curricula;
certification of
competencies
• Mainstreaming
the gender
dimension in all of
these initiatives
AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY
FOR REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS
The role of an integrated regional market
in fostering production linkages
1. The region has made substantial
progress in reducing tariff barriers
to intraregional trade
2. However, much less progress has
been made on regulatory issues,
which are key to modern value
chains: investment, services,
technical standards, trade
facilitation, etc.
3. Critical issues:
- Intellectual property
- Government procurement
and contracts
- Gradual convergence
4. Some first steps could include:
(i) Regional cumulation of origin;
(ii) Harmonization and mutual
recognition of technical and sanitary
standards;
(iii) Coordination of steps taken at the
national level to facilitate trade
(eg. single-window systems)
5. Support from Mexico,
Colombia and the Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela
to the Caribbean
in strategic initiatives
The centrality of industrial policy
The region needs a modern industrial policy
that fosters:
• Participation in regional and global value chains
• Moving up the chain hierarchy, transitioning to more sophisticated activities
in goods and services
The promotion of regional value chains opens up scope
for industrial policy with plurinational components
One area with great potential is support for the
internationalization of SMEs through:
• Programmes to provide support in meeting the quality, safety, and
sustainability requirements of their potential buyers
• Joint programmes for the development of specialized human resources
Another area that has great potential is joint
research and development of technology hubs in
shared areas of interest :
Renewable energy, biotechnology applied to agriculture
and mining, management of water resources, etc.
None of this means setting aside natural
resources, rather it means adding
knowledge and value, and strengthening
linkages with the rest of the economy
The centrality of industrial policy
MAIN MESSAGES AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
Ten recommendations
for regional integration
1. The integration process must be regional in scope
2. Significant transboundary and subregional
components must also be recognized
3. The convergence between integration schemes
is necessary, but it will be a gradual, non-linear
process
4. There is no single or best model of integration, so
plenty of flexibility is needed in designing the
emerging regional space
5. The commitment and political will to converge
towards an integrated regional space
is indispensable
6. Value chains and public policies to promote them
can be a powerful instrument
for regional integration
7. A common agenda for the near term is
a good starting point
8. Integration must rely more on civil society
9. Equality must be the hallmark
of regional integration
10. Integration must be regarded as a State policy
Ten recommendations
for regional integration
