Examples of sellers include American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP, Blackstone,
Blum Capital Partners, Buccini/Pollin Group Inc., Chartwell Hospitality, Donohoe
Hospitality Services, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Fortress Investment Group, Highgate,
KKR & Co. Inc., Lam Generation, McSam Hotel Group, Norwich Partners, Peachtree
Hotel Group, Quadrum Global, and Waterton Associates
Although U.S. hotel sale transactions continue to be consummated, activity is tepid due to
the current disconnect between operating fundamentals and capital markets. Many trades
are being made at opposite ends of the spectrum including trophy properties located in high
barrier markets with strong cash flow, or assets that are underperforming and require
immediate and meaningful capital investment. Generally, pricing of U.S. hotels remains
steady and continues to offer favorable discounts to replacement costs which during the
recent past have dramatically risen.
Commercial real estate investors now perceive U.S. lodging as a darling sector and
preferred asset class. Unlike prior downturns including the 1990/91 Gulf War recession, 9/11,
and the Great Recession of 2008, during the COVID-19 recession the hotel industry for the
most part avoided competing by lowering room rates. The past has proven the lengthy
challenges associated with recovery from slashing prices.
While credit markets remain open for high quality borrowers and/or lodging properties, all-in
financing costs of +/- 9 percent make little sense relative to overall capitalization rates of 8 to
8.5% for many hotel assets. Bid-ask spreads remain wide, and few sellers have yet to be
forced to transact. Relative high debt costs have created new opportunities for alternative
debt platforms and funds. Additionally, substantial sums of liquid equity remain on the
sidelines which, when coupled with strong in-place cash flows, will likely prevent widespread
distress. Currently, given the limited number of acquisition opportunities, buyers with the
ability to consummate transactions quickly with all cash/equity have an advantage.
Despite a slowing economy and possible recession, continued strong demand for transient
lodging accommodations, coupled with relatively low increases of net new hotel supply are
anticipated to bolster sector performance. Bleisure travel has taken root and is increasing the
length of stay in many markets, most notably well-defined leisure markets. Although in the
post COVID-19 pandemic era as Americans have returned to traveling overseas, inbound
foreign visitation to the U.S. continues to rebound, although somewhat hindered by federal
government slow processing of visa applications.
Labor shortages and supply chain issues continue to challenge the sector as do rapidly rising
insurance costs and property taxes. Furthermore, scores of lodging assets are capital
starved and dramatic increases in renovation costs will affect investment underwriting and
decision making.